leonarski_f and Claude Fable 5.1
037c32d9fb
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Error model: ISa is reported only where b is the solution of a fit - not beside a clamped a, not when b was held at zero, and on stills under the same rule
...
The reported ISa is 1/b of the merge error model var = a*s2 + b^2*<I>^2. Three outputs
printed a number that was not the result of any fit:
* A bin whose median normalised deviation lies far below the others' - observations that
repeat their symmetry mates to the bit, as an input read twice gives - takes the whole fit
through its 1/bd2^2 relative weight and pulls both terms towards zero. a stops on its 0.25
bound, b^2 does not, and the remainder's 1/b reads as an I/sigma in the hundreds to
millions; the standard-error test let it through on about half of the synthetic pools.
Beside a clamped a the b^2 is not the solution of any fit, so it is now left unresolved.
* When b had no leverage and was held at zero, b_resolved kept its default and the report
printed ISA 0.00 where the log said ISa was not reported. Unresolved now.
* The stills fit (MergeOnTheFly::RefineErrorModel) had no resolution test at all, so any
tiny positive b^2 went out as ISa; on pools with no systematic error one seed in twelve
printed ISa ~1000. It now carries the same test and rugnux reports it the same way.
* The --report-resolution refit's ISa (REFRES_ISA) was written without the gate.
No a or b changes: the merge weights, outlier band and every value except the resolved flag
are untouched, so a merge whose a sits inside its bounds reports exactly what it did. The
flag also feeds the per-frame-scale arm choice (PartialScalingWins), which is the one
decision that can move - only on a merge whose a is on a bound.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com >
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015CeEGgpKdfkCTJb3YNMJcu
2026-10-26 23:09:38 +01:00
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