Frames of one mount are the same loop seen again, so the paired bootstrap now draws
mounts (data/gold/groups.json, built by tools/gold_groups.py from the mount ids the
studio writes in the gold manifest). The comparison also reports the unseen core without
the saturated frames, and frames the studio dropped from the gold set are pruned.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
A paired bootstrap over the 149 unseen gold frames (2026-10-02) showed that a
difference between two models carries about +-0.023 of noise in F1, +-0.018 in
the mask score and +-0.10 in crystal F1, while the gate's tolerance was 0.005.
- tools/gate_stats.py: per-frame counts and a paired bootstrap (pure Python).
- train_run.py: when the baseline's gold predictions exist, the gate requires
the candidate to beat it on F1 or the mask score in 90 % of the draws and
not to lose the other in more than 90 %; the point rule is the fallback and
is always reported (pass_point_rule).
- tools/compare_unseen.py replaces the Spark's ~/fair_gate_all.py: all models
on the frames none trained on, on the frozen core (data/gold/unseen_core.json,
149 frames) and on all unseen frames once the gold set grows, with the
interval and win share against the active model.
- measure_weights.py keeps a version's gate verdict when it re-measures it.
- tools/spark_cycle.sh: gold growth, export, re-measure, train, gate, compare,
push, with what cycles 3 and 4 taught built in.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>